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Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.