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Just 48 hours before the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, it was possible where election day went kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously went for the progressive now. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. But overall, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on whether the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.