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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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