Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.